EU energy end-uses analysis and 2050 Low-Carbon scenarios - part V - KEP energy Magazine - KEP energy

The EU is committed to cut its GHG emissions in 2050 of 80-95% in comparison to 1990. The overall strategy is presented in the European Commission Communication “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050”. The effects and the implications for the energy sector are analysed in the European Commission Communication “Energy Roadmap 2050”. The analysis is carried out under the condition of ensure the energy supply security and the competitiveness. The measures currently implemented in order to achieve the “20-20-20” targets are ambitious but not enough to decarbonize the EU economy, because they allow in 2050 a 40% GHG emissions cut in comparison to 1990. The investments in the energy sector need time for give results. The “Energy Roadmap 2050” document explores different decarbonization scenarios of the EU energy sector, as support to the measures that should be implemented and to the medium and long term investments.

The “Impact Assessment” document, published as a complement of the “Energy Roadmap 2050” document, describes seven different configuration scenarios of the EU energy sector, developed through PRIMES model. Five scenarios are developed starting from the same demographic and macroeconomic (sectorial) bases, that foresight a transition from the current phase of high operational costs to a future phase of high investment costs. They are diversified from each other for the different combination of the decarbonization strategies.

1) Reference Scenario: the scenario is based on the current trends and on the long-term economic growth foresights. It takes in account the EU energy-policy implemented until 2010, comprising the “20-20-20” strategy;

2) Current Policy Initiatives: the scenario is based on the Reference Scenario widening, in order to take in account the proposed or adopted strategies complementary to the “20-20-20” strategy and beyond the 2020;

3) Energy Efficiency Scenario: the scenario is based on a deep application of the energy efficiency strategies in all the energy sectors, and on a strong reduction of the primary energy consumption;

4) Diversified Supply Technologies: the scenario is based on the hypothesis that the competition among energy sources be driven through market rules, without support measures for the energy efficiency and for the RES;

5) High RES: the scenario is based on the hypothesis of a high RES penetration in all energy sectors. In the power sector, the installed capacity should reach 1.900 GW (eight time than currently);

6) Delayed CCS: the scenario is based on the hypothesis of limited CCS implementation, due to transport and storage problems, and of widespread nuclear use;

7) Low Nuclear: the scenario is based on the hypothesis of limited nuclear use, due to risk perception and waste management problems, and of widespread CCS implementation.

The final energy demand remains almost unchanged in the Reference Scenario and in the Current Policy Initiatives scenario, and strongly falls in the decarbonization scenarios.

The Energy Efficiency scenario foresights a 14% decrease in 2030 and a 40% decrease in 2050, in comparison to the Reference Scenario. In comparison to the same scenario, the decarbonization scenarios foresight at least a 8% decrease in 2030 and at least a 34% decrease in 2050. In these scenarios, the electricity becomes the main energy carrier that fuels the final energy demand. The achievement of the energy sector decarbonization is function of the power sector decarbonization. In the Energy Efficiency scenario the final energy demand reduction in the households and services sectors is respectively – 47% and – 44% (overall – 36%).

In comparison to the Reference Scenario, the Energy Efficiency scenario foresights an overall final energy demand reduction of 20% in 2030 and 43% in 2050 in the households sector, and of 25% in 2030 and 53% in 2050 in the services sector.

The “Impact Assessment” document indicates that the decarbonization achievement needs a strong drop of the EU economy energy intensity and carbon intensity. The first parameter represents the energy consumed to produce one unity of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the second parameter represents the GHG emitted to produce one unity of GDP. The drop should be reached through RES, nuclear and CCS. In comparison to 1990 the decarbonization scenarios foresight in 2050 an energy intensity drop ranging from 73% to 76%, and a carbon intensity drop ranging from 76% to 78%.

The supply side analysis shows that the scenarios are strongly differentiated among them for the fuel-switching deepness from oil and gas to electricity and RES. In Figure are illustrated the minimum and maximum levels foreseen in 2030 and in 2050 for each energy carrier.

In the Reference Scenario the oil drops 16-17% in 2050 in comparison to 2005, and the gas drops 31-33% in comparison to the same year. In this scenario the fossil fuels continue to play a primary role, fuelling over half of the overall final energy demand, whilst the electrification and the RES penetration growth at low rate. In 2050 the electricity growth is 44-46% in comparison to 2005, and the RES growth is 84-92% in comparison to the same year. In the decarbonization scenarios the oil drops 63-65% in 2050 in comparison to 2005, and the gas drops 48-51% in comparison to the same year. In these scenarios the fossil fuels go to play a secondary role, fuelling less than one third of the overall final energy demand, whilst the electrification and the RES penetration growth at high rate. In 2050 the electricity growth is 72-92% in comparison to 2005, and the RES growth is 386-512% in comparison to the same year.